One of the most common misconceptions in the game is you should always insure a blackjack. The argument goes, 'You will win money on the hand regardless of what the dealer has.' (And this is true. If the dealer has a blackjack you tie your regular bet and win money on your insurance bet. The amount of life insurance you need depends greatly on your life and financial situation. If you are single and childless, the amount offered by your employer should cover your burial expenses for your family. If you are married or have children, you should increase the amount of life insurance you purchase.
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Unless you’re counting cards in a real-life casino, you should never wager money on insurance in blackjack. All it takes is a quick look at the math behind the bet to see that statistically it’s going to lose you money in the long run.
Michael Shackleford: Hi guys, this is Mike and the purpose of today's Wizard of Odds Academy lesson will be to explain why you should never take insurance in Blackjack. What insurance is, is a side bet that the dealer has a 10 point card in the hole.
It is offered when the dealer already has an ace up, so it wins in the event that the dealer gets a blackjack. The insurance bet can be made for up to half of the player's original bet and it pays two to one if it wins.
I'm going to…
…put a two for the pace if the dealer has a 10 point card in the hole and a negative one if the dealer has an ace and a nine which represents that the player lost his insurance bet.
Let's assume six packs of cards, shall we?
Assuming no other information other than the ace up the dealer already has, there are 96 winning cards for the insurance bet, 16 times 6 out of 311 left. There's 311 because a full six-deck shoe is 312 cards and we take one out because of the dealer's ace, and there are 215 cards that will cause the insurance bet to lose.
Let's take the product of the win and the probability.
2 times 96 over 311 is 61.74% and 215 divided by 311 times -1 is -69.13%. In other words, the player can expect to win 61.74% of his bet and lose 69.13% of his bet. We take the sum which is -7.40%. That means that for every dollar the player bets on insurance, he can expect to lose 7.4 cents or 7.4% of whatever his insurance bet is.
7. https://luckypass.netlify.app/rhode-island-online-real-money-poker.html. 4% is a pretty high house advantage and consequently, I recommend that you say no to insurance every time. Before someone says in the comments, 'Mike, what if the count is good? What if I'm counting cards?'
Yes. Then, of course, there are exceptions. If you've been counting cards and you know that the remaining cards are very 10 rich, but for the recreational player that's not counting, insurance is a terrible bet and, again, I recommend you decline it every time.
'What about even money?'
If it costs you $10 in gas every night to get to and from a poker room and you're only averaging winning $5 per session, your win rate is positive but you aren't making money. How does the casino make money on poker. But even if you enjoy a positive win rate or ROI, you need to consider other expenses related to playing poker and look at whether or not your winnings are exceeding them. For instance, if you spend $200 in buy-ins and cash for $220 total, your ROI is $20 (the profit) / $200 = 0.1. 100 = 10%.Obviously if your win rate or ROI is negative, you aren't making money playing poker.
You might be asking me. Well, let me explain to you first of all, that the even money offer is the same thing as taking insurance. It's only offered when the player already has a blackjack and the dealer has an ace up.
Let's look…
…at what would happen both ways if the player has a blackjack and takes insurance. If the dealer ends up getting that blackjack, the main bet will push, so it wins nothing, but the insurance but will win one unit because the player bets half a unit on insurance. The insurance but pays two to one on the winning blackjack. One-half times two equals one.
Next…
If the dealer does not get that blackjack, the player's main wager will pay one and a half but he will lose half a unit on the insurance. The combined when between the main wager and the insurance wager is one unit when the dealer does get a blackjack and one unit when the dealer does not get a blackjack.
It doesn't make any difference whether or not the dealer gets a blackjack. If the player has a blackjack and takes insurance, he wins one unit either way and what the dealer is essentially saying is, 'Look, if you take insurance, you're going to win one to one regardless if I have a blackjack. I may as well just pay you now before I even check what I have.”
In those cases, the operators consider the information proprietary, and do not publicly report the numbers.Many jurisdictions no longer break out numbers for denominations like dimes and 50 cents, particularly since the advent of multi-denomination machines. https://mmolucky.netlify.app/best-paid-poker-machine-at-rampart-casino.html.
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It sounds attractive but let's do some math and see if you should take it. Let's evaluate the situation where the player has a blackjack, the dealer has an ace up and the player declines insurance. If the dealer has a 10 in the hole, then the player will win nothing because it will be a blackjack against blackjack tie, in other words, a push. If the dealer has anything else in the hole, the player will win his full three to two on his wager or 1.5.
Let's assume:
knowledge of no other cards in the shoe other than what's already on the table. There are 309 cards left out of the 312 card shoe, less than three cards already involved, the player's ace and 10 and the dealers ace.
The probability that the dealer has a 10 in the hole is 95 divided by 309. Like I just said, there's 309 cards left, the shoe started with 96 tens but the player has one of them. The chances that the dealer has an ace to 9 in the hole is 214 divided by 309.
Let's examine what the player can get back either way:
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If the dealer does have that 10 in the hole, the player can expect to get back nothing because the probability of zero times anything is zero. If the dealer does not have a 10 in the hole, the player can expect to get back 1.5 with a probability of 214 divided by 309. The product of those two numbers is 103.88%. If we add them up, it's obvious you still get that same 103.88%.
What this means is…
When Should You Buy Insurance In Blackjack
…if the player has a blackjack, the dealer has an ace up, the player can expect to win 1.0388 times his bet or about 104% of whatever he bet. The decision to whether or not to take even money is the decision; do you want to get back an average of 103.88% of your bet or just 100%?What's more? 100% or 103.88%? Well, 103.88% is more, therefore, if you're seeking the greater expected value, which you should be in any casino game, you should decline even money and go for that 103.88%.
Few caveats here:
Number one - again this is assuming the player is not counting cards, just a recreational player. Number two - this is assuming that a blackjack pays three to two.
Finally, this question has come up on my forum every once in a while and a lot of people use the argument that yes, I make a good mathematical argument for declining an insurance even money but what about the psychological argument?
If you’re in this situation with a blackjack against the dealer ace, some people will say you have a 100% chance of being happy by taking the even money, locking in a sure win but only a 69.26% chance of being happy by declining the even money.
Those figures are right but…
…in the casino as well as real life, you should be long-term minded. You should be thinking what is the expected average gain for any decision that you make? Do not always play conservatively and lock in the small win when the average win by taking a chance is greater.
Of course, there are exceptions for life-changing situations but if you’re playing Blackjack, it assumes that you like gambling, to begin with. You’re in the casino you’re gambling, gamble on winning that full one and half, don’t settle on the measly one unit. Furthermore, even if you do use this argument of I want a 100% chance of being happy right now, I’ll take the even money. That happiness is only going to last less than a minute until the next hand.
I think…
When To Take Insurance Blackjack
…you should be thinking what is going to be your happiness when you finally walk away from the table and you go home for your trip? The more money you win or the less money you lose from that sitting and the whole trip, the happier you’re going to be.
Furthermore, you’re going to get more, shall we say, action by taking that chance on winning with your blackjack. Like I said you’re gambling, to begin with, so gamble!
I can’t think of anything else to say on this topic. I hope that I’ve convinced you to always say no to insurance and even money.
Thanks, guys for listening and I’ll see you in the next video.
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Blackjack Insurance Strategy
A question I get asked quite frequently by casino players is whether they should take insurance in blackjack. It seems to be something that confuses a lot of people, even among those that fullyunderstand basic strategy and the role that math has to play in blackjack.
Should You Buy Insurance In Blackjack
When I’m asked this question I usually just give a simple answer (no), but I sometimes feel inclined to expand on this and explain why. I recently did this with a player who asked the question,and for one reason or another he just couldn’t seem to accept what I was saying. He was absolutely convinced that the insurance bet is always the right way to go.
Should You Buy Insurance When Playing Blackjack
My initial reaction was to wonder why he asked me the question in the first place, as he was so sure he knew the correct answer himself. My second reaction was to think that I should write a blogpost about taking insurance in blackjack. So here it is! I’ll explain exactly what the insurance bet is for any of you who are not familiar with it, and then use some basic math to explain whyit’s a bad bet.